Cosmic Billiards: 1.3M Asteroid Paths Checked for 2029 Impact

In 2029, a sizable asteroid will pass by Earth at such proximity that it will be observable without telescopic aid. Fortunately, calculations of its trajectory suggest that there’s no risk of impact in the next hundred years. However, there’s a question of whether interactions with other asteroids could alter its path toward us. To investigate this possibility, astronomers have analyzed the trajectories of 1.3 million identified asteroids.

Astronomers detected an asteroid named 99942 Apophis in 2004, sparking immediate concern. Initial assessments indicated a 2.7% probability of it colliding with Earth on April 13, 2029. Apophis’s significant diameter, measuring up to 370 meters (1,210 feet), prompted authorities to assign it a Torino scale rating of 4, the highest ever recorded for impact hazards, due to the potential for widespread devastation upon impact. Fortunately, subsequent observations swiftly dismissed the likelihood of a collision on the designated day, as well as during other close approaches in 2036 and 2068.

Apophis’s Near Pass in 2029

Nevertheless, the 2029 incident remains remarkably close – Apophis will zoom past at approximately 37,000 km (23,000 miles), potentially reaching as near as 32,000 km (20,000 miles). This distance is less than one-tenth the distance to the Moon, which itself is closer than geostationary satellites. Such proximity means that under sufficiently dark skies, the asteroid will be visible to the naked eye. Even a slight disturbance, such as from another asteroid, could determine whether a city faces obliteration or not.

Potential Impact of Apophis’s Passage on Earth

“Considering the proximity of Apophis’s passage to Earth, there exists a conceivable risk that a deviation in its current path could bring Apophis closer to impacting our planet,” stated Benjamin Hyatt, co-author of the study. “Theoretically, a collision with another asteroid could induce such a deviation, prompting us to explore this scenario despite its improbability.”

Therefore, scientists from Western University and the University of Waterloo embarked on the task of calculating the trajectories of all 1.3 million documented asteroids in the solar system to ascertain whether Apophis might be participating in a celestial game of billiards before its rendezvous with Earth. Fortunately, they ruled out any direct collisions, although there were several instances of close encounters.

For instance, in December 2026, Apophis is expected to pass within 10,000 km (6,200 mi) of a sizable asteroid named Xanthus, measuring 1.3 km (0.8 mi) in width. The two asteroids will narrowly miss each other by just four hours, with a slight possibility of Apophis being struck by some small debris from Xanthus. However, this is not anticipated to alter its trajectory.

Monitoring Earth’s Skies for Potential Impact Threats

Despite the absence of identified impact threats to Earth in the next century, it remains prudent to continue monitoring the skies. In the event of detecting an object on a collision course with sufficient advance notice, recent advancements such as the DART mission have demonstrated our capability to intervene and alter its trajectory, akin to a game of cosmic billiards.

“Asteroid Apophis has captivated humanity since its identification in 2004, representing the initial credible hazard from an asteroid to our world,” remarked Paul Wiegert, co-author of the study. “Despite our current understanding that it will safely bypass Earth, astronomers continue to keep a watchful eye. It remains the asteroid that commands our ongoing attention.”

The findings were detailed in the Planetary Science Journal. A video illustrating some of Apophis’s nearest encounters is available below.

Read the original article on: New Atlas

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