AI Analyzed Millions of Arctic Images and Discovered a Concerning Trend

Since 1979, the Arctic has warmed almost four times faster than the global average. Svalbard, an archipelago off Greenland’s northeast coast, is experiencing climate change at an even faster rate, warming up to seven times quicker than the rest of the planet.

More than half of Svalbard is covered by glaciers, and if they were to completely melt, global sea levels would rise by 1.7 cm. While this won’t occur overnight, glaciers in the Arctic are highly sensitive to even small temperature changes.

To better understand glaciers in Svalbard and elsewhere, we used an AI model to analyze millions of satellite images from the past four decades. Our findings, published in Nature Communications, reveal that these glaciers are shrinking at an accelerated rate, consistent with global warming trends.

The Role of Marine-Terminating Glaciers in Svalbard’s Ecosystem

We focused specifically on glaciers that drain directly into the ocean, known as “marine-terminating glaciers.” Most of Svalbard’s glaciers fall into this category. These glaciers play a crucial role in the ecosystem, acting as a pump in the fjords by transferring nutrient-rich seawater to the ocean’s surface and influencing ocean circulation patterns.

The Importance of Iceberg Calving in Glacier Mass Loss

At the point where these glaciers meet the sea, they primarily lose mass through iceberg calving, where large ice chunks break off from the glacier and fall into the ocean. Understanding this process is crucial for accurately predicting future glacier mass loss, as calving can accelerate ice flow within the glacier and eventually into the sea.

Despite its significance, studying the calving process has been a long-standing challenge in glaciology, as it is difficult to observe and model precisely. However, by analyzing past data, we can gain insights into future trends.

Traditionally, mapping the glacier calving front—the boundary between ice and ocean—involves researchers manually reviewing satellite images and creating digital records. This method is labor-intensive, inefficient, and often inconsistent, as different individuals may interpret the same image in varying ways. With the vast number of satellite images available today, it’s impractical to rely on human resources to map every region annually.

A more efficient approach is to use automated tools like artificial intelligence (AI), which can swiftly detect glacier patterns across large areas.

In our recent study, we applied AI to analyze millions of satellite images of 149 marine-terminating glaciers taken between 1985 and 2023. This allowed us to examine glacier retreats on an unprecedented scale and in greater detail.

We found that an overwhelming 91% of marine-terminating glaciers in Svalbard have been significantly shrinking. Since 1985, more than 800 km² of glacier has been lost—an area larger than New York City. This equates to an annual loss of 24 km², nearly double the size of Heathrow Airport in London.

A Year of Extreme Warming and Record Calving Rates

The most significant increase in calving rates occurred in 2016, when they doubled due to extreme warming periods. That year, Svalbard experienced its wettest summer and autumn since 1955, with a record 42 mm of rain falling in a single day in October. This was coupled with unusually warm, ice-free seas.

Along with the long-term retreat, these glaciers also experience seasonal fluctuations, retreating in the summer and advancing again in winter, often by several hundred meters—sometimes more than the changes observed from year to year.

Our research revealed that 62% of Svalbard’s glaciers undergo these seasonal cycles. While this behavior is well-documented in Greenland, it had only been observed in a few glaciers in Svalbard, typically through manual digitization.

Seasonal Glacier Retreat Linked to Ocean Temperature Changes

We then compared these seasonal shifts with variations in air and ocean temperatures. We discovered that as the ocean warmed in spring, the glaciers immediately began to retreat. This provided strong evidence for a long-held scientific belief: the seasonal fluctuations of these glaciers are driven by changes in ocean temperatures.

Svalbard experiences frequent climate extremes because of its unique position in the Arctic, close to warm Atlantic waters. Our findings suggest that marine-terminating glaciers are particularly sensitive to these climate extremes, with the most significant retreat rates occurring in recent years.

This type of glacier is found throughout the Arctic, especially around Greenland, the largest ice mass in the northern hemisphere. The changes happening to glaciers in Svalbard are likely to be mirrored in other regions.

If the current trend of climate warming persists, these glaciers will continue to retreat at an accelerated rate, contributing to rising sea levels and posing a threat to millions of people living in coastal areas around the world.

Read the original article on: Science Alert

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