AI Could be Behind our Failure to Communicate with Aliens

In recent years, the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) has captivated many scientists. Some are now exploring the concept of artificial superintelligence (ASI), envisioning AI that not only exceeds human intelligence but also transcends human learning limitations.

But what if reaching this milestone isn’t just an extraordinary feat? What if it also marks a significant obstacle in the progress of all civilizations, one so formidable that it jeopardizes their long-term survival?

This concept lies at the core of a recent research paper I published in Acta Astronautica. Could AI serve as the universe’s “great filter“—a barrier so daunting that it obstructs the advancement of most civilizations toward becoming space-faring societies?

This idea offers a potential explanation for why the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) has yet to detect any signs of advanced technical civilizations elsewhere in the galaxy.

Deciphering the Fermi Paradox

The great filter hypothesis emerges as a proposed resolution to the Fermi Paradox, which questions why, in a universe vast and ancient enough to harbor billions of potentially habitable planets, we have observed no evidence of alien civilizations. This hypothesis posits that there are formidable obstacles within the evolutionary trajectory of civilizations that impede their transition into space-faring entities.

I posit that the advent of ASI could serve as such a filter. The swift progress of AI, potentially leading to ASI, might coincide with a crucial juncture in a civilization’s evolution—the transition from a single-planet species to a multiplanetary one.

This pivotal phase poses significant risks, as AI could advance far more rapidly than our ability to manage or sustainably explore and colonize our solar system.

The challenge with AI, particularly ASI, lies in its autonomous, self-amplifying, and self-improving nature. It holds the capability to augment its own capacities at a pace surpassing our evolutionary timelines without AI.

Deciphering the Fermi Paradox

The potential for catastrophic mishaps looms large, posing threats to both biological and AI civilizations before they can achieve multiplanetary status. For instance, increased reliance on autonomous AI systems by nations, engaged in competitive pursuits, could escalate military capabilities to unprecedented levels of destruction. This scenario could culminate in the annihilation of our civilization, including the AI systems themselves.

Under this scenario, I estimate the typical lifespan of a technological civilization to be less than 100 years. This timeframe spans from the ability to transmit and receive signals between stars (1960) to the projected emergence of ASI (2040) on Earth. Such brevity is concerning when juxtaposed against the cosmic timescale spanning billions of years.

Incorporating this estimate into optimistic iterations of the Drake equation, which endeavors to gauge the number of active, communicative extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way, suggests that only a few intelligent civilizations may exist at any given time. Furthermore, their relatively restrained technological activities might render them challenging to detect, akin to our own situation.

This research isn’t just a warning of potential catastrophe; it’s a call to action for humanity to establish robust regulatory frameworks guiding AI development, including military applications.

Aligning AI Evolution with Long-Term Human Survival

It’s not only about preventing AI’s malevolent use on Earth; it’s also about ensuring AI’s evolution aligns with our species’ long-term survival. This implies the need to prioritize efforts towards becoming a multiplanetary society—a goal dormant since the Apollo project era, now revitalized by private sector advancements.

As historian Yuval Noah Harari remarked, history offers no precedent for the impact of introducing non-conscious, super-intelligent entities to our planet. Recent concerns over autonomous AI decision-making have prompted calls for a moratorium on AI development until responsible control and regulation are in place.

However, even with global agreement on strict rules, rogue organizations pose challenges to regulation enforcement.

Navigating Ethical Quandaries

The integration of autonomous AI in military defense systems raises particular concerns. Evidence suggests humans willingly cede significant power to more capable systems for rapid and effective task execution. Governments are hesitant to regulate due to AI’s strategic advantages, evident in recent conflicts like Gaza.

This precarious balance risks autonomous weapons operating beyond ethical bounds and bypassing international law. Surrendering power to AI systems for tactical advantages could trigger rapid, highly destructive escalation, potentially leading to catastrophic consequences.

Humanity stands at a pivotal juncture in its technological journey. Our current actions may determine whether we evolve into an enduring interstellar civilization or succumb to challenges posed by our own creations.

Viewing our future development through the lens of SETI adds a unique perspective to AI discourse. It’s incumbent upon us all to ensure that as we reach for the stars, we do so not as a cautionary tale for other civilizations, but as a beacon of hope—a species thriving alongside AI.

Read the original article on: Phys Org

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