Asteroid 2024 YR4 May Hit Earth in 7 Years: What’s Being Done

The recently discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 has an average 2% chance of colliding with Earth in 2032. While the odds of an impact are slim, astronomers are closely monitoring the asteroid to gather more information — a process that could soon involve the most powerful observatory ever launched into space.

Size Estimate and Comparison with Known Objects

Not much is known about 2024 YR4, but the asteroid is estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters wide, a size comparable to a large building, according to Dr. Paul Chodas, manager of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.

This asteroid is much smaller than the one that struck Earth 66 million years ago, leading to the extinction of the dinosaurs, which was estimated to be around 10 kilometers in diameter. These “planet-killer” asteroids, larger than 1 kilometer across, can have devastating effects on life on Earth.

Smaller asteroids, like 2024 YR4, can cause regional devastation if they are on a collision course with Earth, which is why astronomers are urgently working to gather as much data as possible. Refining the asteroid’s trajectory could reduce the likelihood of a direct hit to zero. However, astronomers only have a limited time to track the asteroid before it fades from view in April. To assist in this, they plan to direct the James Webb Space Telescope towards 2024 YR4 to determine its size and orbit with greater precision.

Discovery and Tracking by the ATLAS Telescope

The ATLAS telescope, located in Rio Hurtado, Chile, first discovered 2024 YR4 on December 27. ATLAS is part of NASA’s asteroid discovery programs, which scan the sky for near-Earth objects, explained Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The asteroid’s size estimate has remained mostly unchanged since the initial discovery, despite multiple observations using various telescopes. The asteroid’s size is calculated based on the light it reflects, but the Webb telescope, which observes in infrared light, will provide a more accurate estimate by measuring the heat emitted by the asteroid.

Since January, several observatories, including the Magdalena Ridge Observatory in New Mexico, the Very Large Telescope in Chile, and Hawaii’s observatories, have tracked the asteroid. Pan-STARRS, located on the Haleakalā volcano in Maui, is one of the leading telescopes in the world for detecting near-Earth objects and is also part of the effort to monitor 2024 YR4.

Once the asteroid moves beyond the reach of Earth-based telescopes, Webb will continue to observe it, providing measurements of its position. They have planned a second observation campaign for May.If the asteroid disappears from view before space agencies can rule out any chance of impact, it will remain on the risk list until it becomes visible again in June 2028.

Understanding the exact size of the asteroid will help scientists estimate the potential risks if they find 2024 YR4 on a collision course with Earth.If the asteroid is on the larger end of its size range, the impact could cause damage as far as 50 kilometers from the impact site. Asteroids of this size strike Earth every few thousand years, and they can cause severe regional damage.

Comparisons with Past Incidents and Their Effects

In 1908, a 30-meter-wide asteroid hit a remote Siberian forest in Russia, leveling trees and destroying forests over an area of 2,150 square kilometers. In 2013, a 20-meter-wide asteroid entered Earth’s atmosphere over Chelyabinsk, Russia, exploding in the air and releasing energy 20 to 30 times greater than that of an atomic bomb, damaging over 7,000 buildings and injuring more than 1,000 people.

If 2024 YR4 is larger, the effects could be far worse.If scientists confirm that the asteroid’s diameter is around 50 meters and it is a rocky asteroid, the impact will devastate an area of about 2,000 square kilometers, similar to the 1908 Tunguska event. The effects would extend over tens of kilometers if it’s even larger.

The Difficulty in Detecting Smaller Asteroids and the Need for Continuous Monitoring

Each year, scientists discover about 3,000 new near-Earth objects. However, detecting asteroids the size of 2024 YR4 has proven more difficult because they are smaller, darker, and harder to spot with telescopes. Scientists estimate that approximately 600,000 rocky objects of similar size exist, but they have only found around 2% of them, or about 12,000.

As Larry Denneau, an astronomer at the University of Hawaii, explains, small asteroids hit Earth frequently, but they cause little damage. Larger asteroids are much rarer but can cause much greater damage. This is why continuous monitoring of the sky is essential to detect potential threats.

Read the original article on: CNN Science

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