Chance of a Tunguska-Level Impact in 2032 Has Now Doubled

At the end of 2024, astronomers spotted a new asteroid in the night sky. It was designated 2024 YR4—”Y” for its December discovery, “R4” as the 117th rock found in late December, and “2024” marking the year of detection.

Once identified, astronomers began tracking its position to refine its orbit. Initial calculations suggested a 1% chance of striking Earth, but as more observations were made, that probability more than doubled. Currently, 2024 YR4 has a 2.3% chance of impact on December 22, 2032. While this may sound alarming, it’s not unusual.

The projected trajectory, shown in the image above, highlights potential impact points. The 2.3% probability doesn’t mean a random dice roll—rather, it reflects orbital simulations. Out of 1,000 models based on current data, 23 result in an Earth impact. The most likely scenario places the asteroid 240,000 km from Earth, well within the Moon’s orbit but not dangerously close.

Despite the increased odds, astronomers remain cautious but not overly concerned. Even at 1%, NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) classified it as a 3 on the Torino scale, indicating continued monitoring but no immediate action. At 2.3%, the rating remains unchanged.

Gravitational Uncertainty: Earth’s Influence on 2024 YR4’s Orbit

Asteroid orbits are less predictable than planetary ones, often influenced by gravitational tugs from nearby bodies. One key source of uncertainty for 2024 YR4 is Earth itself. In 2028, it will pass within 8 million km of our planet, allowing astronomers to refine its trajectory. Only then will we know if intervention is necessary.

Even in a worst-case scenario—where the impact risk rises to near certainty—there’s no cause for panic. The real danger comes from undiscovered asteroids, like the Chelyabinsk meteor, which arrived unexpectedly from the Sun’s direction.

With years of lead time, deflection strategies could be implemented if needed. And even if 2024 YR4 were to hit Earth, it isn’t large enough to trigger an extinction-level event. The main concern would be evacuating populated areas, but there would be ample time to prepare and mitigate damage.

Early trajectory estimates can fluctuate significantly, and while the odds may shift again, they will most likely drop to zero. For updates, check NASA’s Planetary Defense Page.

Read Original Article: Science Alert

Read More: A Mysterious Cosmic Explosion May Have Been Detected