Chance of ‘City Killer’ Asteroid Striking Earth Drops to 0.001%

The likelihood of a football field-sized asteroid striking Earth in 2032 has dropped significantly to just 0.001 percent, according to the European Space Agency (ESA). Initially, the asteroid set a record for the highest impact probability ever recorded—3.1 percent by NASA and 2.8 percent by the ESA—prompting heightened monitoring from the planetary defense community.

As expected, additional observations from telescopes worldwide refined the asteroid’s projected path, steadily eliminating the possibility of a collision. The ESA confirmed that the asteroid’s threat level on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale has now fallen to zero, down from level three out of ten just last week.

Named 2024 YR4, the asteroid was discovered in December and is estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters (130 to 300 feet) wide—large enough to destroy an entire city. Had it been on a collision course, impact would have occurred on December 22, 2032. However, current data strongly indicates that it will safely pass by Earth instead.

Ongoing Monitoring and Planetary Defense: How Humanity Can Respond to Asteroid Threats

Despite the diminishing risk, the James Webb Space Telescope will continue monitoring the asteroid in the coming months. Meanwhile, planetary defense experts emphasize that even if an asteroid of this size were headed for Earth, humanity now has tools to respond. NASA’s 2022 DART mission demonstrated this capability by successfully altering an asteroid’s trajectory through a direct spacecraft impact.

Richard Moissl, head of the ESA’s planetary defense office, described the process of detecting and ruling out the threat as “an exciting and educational exercise.” While praising the efficiency of early detection, he stressed that there is still room for improvement.

New telescopes, including the Vera Rubin Observatory and the Flyeye telescope, are nearing operational status and will significantly enhance asteroid detection. Additionally, Europe’s upcoming NEOMIR early warning mission aims to further strengthen planetary defense efforts.

The last time an asteroid larger than 30 meters posed such a substantial threat was in 2004, when Apophis briefly had a 2.7 percent chance of hitting Earth in 2029. That risk was also eliminated through subsequent observations.

Read Original Article: Science Alert

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