‘City-Killer’ Asteroid Impact Remains Possible—Just Not on Earth

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is making headlines again, but there’s still no reason to panic—at least for Earth. The asteroid remains no threat to our planet, with collision odds stuck at a minuscule 0.001 percent. However, the Moon might not be as lucky.

According to a study led by planetary astronomer Andrew Rivkin of Johns Hopkins University, 2024 YR4 has a small chance of striking the Moon when it passes near Earth in December 2032. “While an Earth impact has been ruled out for December 22, 2032,” the researchers noted, “the Moon still faces a non-zero probability of impact.”

What does this mean? For now, scientists aren’t sure. Observations using the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) are scheduled for May 2025, which should refine impact predictions and assess any potential consequences for Earth.

Asteroid 2024 YR4’s Initial Alarm: Early Impact Risk Dropped but Continued Monitoring Needed

Discovered on December 27, 2024, the asteroid initially raised alarm due to its projected trajectory. Early calculations suggested a 3.1 percent chance of a 2032 Earth impact—low but significant. Further observations drastically lowered that risk, offering relief, but researchers continue monitoring the asteroid’s path as it orbits the Sun.

As YR4 faded from view, scientists used JWST to measure its size and composition. The asteroid spans roughly 60 meters (197 feet), confirming it is large enough to cause serious damage if it ever threatened Earth. Spectral analysis also suggests a rocky composition, meaning an Earth impact could release between 2 and 30 megatons of TNT—comparable to the 15-megaton Tunguska event that flattened a Siberian forest in 1908.

For now, Earth is safe, but YR4 remains under watch. Another observation window in 2026 will further refine its trajectory and composition. Until then, fingers crossed for good news—especially for the Moon.

Read Original Article: Science Alert

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