Climate Change May Disrupt Future Solar Generation, According to Modeling

The stability of grid-connected solar power systems in Australia’s renewable energy transition should take into account the potential impact of climate change, which may affect their future performance.

Modeling conducted by researchers at UNSW Sydney indicates that disruptive solar generation events, known as ramps, will undergo significant changes in magnitude, frequency, and duration over the next century. These findings, published in Scientific Reports, offer valuable insights for the development of future solar power infrastructure in Australia.

Addressing Variability and Supply-Demand Mismatches

As the fastest-growing renewable energy technology in Australia, grid-connected solar power systems (large-scale photovoltaics) play a crucial role. However, solar energy’s dependence on direct sunlight conversion leads to inherent variability in power generation due to factors like cloud cover, time of day, seasonal cycles, and location. Such sudden variability can create mismatches between electricity supply and demand, potentially leading to power outages or grid failures if not managed properly.

Lead author Shukla Poddar, a Ph.D. candidate at the School of Photovoltaics and Renewable Energy Engineering, highlights that solar PV generation is susceptible to climate factors, making it vulnerable to climate change impacts. For instance, changes in cloud patterns passing over solar panels can cause sudden voltage fluctuations and blackouts due to ramp-downs or ramp-ups in power output.

Solar Dominates as Key Renewable Energy Source

In 2022, renewables contributed to 35.9% of Australia’s total electricity generation, with solar being the most significant renewable energy contributor to the grid. As large-scale PV deployment, including the world’s largest solar farm in Powell Creek, Australia, is planned, understanding and modeling future ramps become crucial to ensure stable power generation as the country increasingly relies on large-scale solar.

Associate Professor Merlinde Kay, a co-author of the study and lecturer in the School of Photovoltaic and Renewable Energy Engineering, emphasizes the importance of this work for grid operators. They are responsible for managing and maintaining a reliable electricity network and must comprehend how ramp events will change with climate change to plan their adoption accordingly, especially with the integration of more variable renewables like solar.

Modeling Solar Power Ramps

To address the management of solar power ramps, the research team utilized regional climate projections to model these events across Australia until 2100, considering both intermediate and high emission scenarios. Their findings indicate that solar ramps are likely to increase in frequency and duration along the east coast and parts of Northern Australia, while their magnitude may decrease. These changes are particularly significant under the high emissions scenario, which is the current trajectory for Australia.

Lead author Poddar explains that overall, solar ramps are expected to become more frequent in the coming century due to climate change, although the extent of this change varies based on location and future emissions. For grid operators, this means preparing with suitable technologies and strategies to manage the growing intermittency issues.

Strategies for Grid Stability

Effective management of the fluctuations caused by solar ramps can be achieved through mass storage technology, such as large batteries that can store excess solar energy during ramp-up events and release it back into the grid during ramp-down events. Diversifying the renewable energy mix in the grid, including technologies like wind that can operate during the night, is also crucial.

The researchers emphasize the significance of building solar farms in optimal locations as another strategy to mitigate the impacts of power ramps. They hope their study’s findings will inform future solar farm developments worldwide, with potential application of their framework to study ramp events in different regions as the climate changes.

In summary, the study highlights the importance of preparing for increased solar ramps by implementing appropriate technologies, storage solutions, and renewable energy diversification in Australia’s grid. The research outcomes have the potential to influence global solar farm planning and management in the face of climate change.

Read the origina article on Tech Xplore.

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