Climate Change’s Impact on Extreme-Weather Events
In a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Professor Michael Mann from the University of Pennsylvania and his colleagues from Clemson University, the University of California Los Angeles, and Columbia University explored the impact of climate change on exacerbating compound heat and drought situations.
The research provides valuable insights into predicting the interaction between these events, offering scientists and policymakers a more comprehensive approach to preventing and preparing for extreme weather occurrences.
Examining the Effects of Compound Heat and Drought
The study highlights the harmful consequences of increasingly severe droughts and wildfires observed in recent years. Professor Mann points out two notable examples: the 2020 California wildfires and the 2019-20 Australian bushfire season, commonly known as the Black Summer.
These events represent compound drought and heat wave (CDHW) situations, where a region experiences prolonged hot temperatures and water scarcity.
Such conditions can intensify each other’s impacts, leading to heat-related illnesses, water shortages for drinking and agriculture, reduced crop yields, increased wildfire risks, and ecological stress. The researchers also emphasize that human-induced climate change contributes to the frequency and severity of these events.
Assessing Scenarios and Projections
The research team compared two socioeconomic pathways: a worst-case scenario where society fails to mitigate climate change’s effects and a moderate scenario with conservative measures in place.
In the worst-case scenario, they project that by the late 21st century, approximately 20% of global land areas will experience around two CDHW events annually. These events may last about 25 days and be four times more severe than the recently observed reference period.
In contrast, the average frequency of CDHW events in the reference period was approximately 1.2 events per year, lasting less than ten days and with lower severity. Geographically, regions such as eastern North America, southeastern South America, Central Europe, East Africa, Central Asia, and northern Australia are projected to experience the most significant increases in CDHW frequency by the end of the century. Urban environments, including places like Philadelphia, will witness a higher relative frequency of these events during summertime.
The Urgent Need for Action
The researchers stress the significant threat posed by more frequent and intense CDHW events in the coming decades and emphasize the impact of emissions reduction pathways on the severity of these events.
Addressing the escalating risks associated with compound drought and heat waves is crucial as climate change unfolds. The study underscores the importance of proactive measures, including emission reductions and adaptation strategies, to build resilience and protect vulnerable regions from the impacts of these events.
The findings carry important scientific context for the ongoing heatwaves and wildfires in the United States, emphasizing the urgency of transitioning away from fossil fuels to prevent further deterioration of the dangerous combination of heat and drought.
Read the original article on ScienceDaily.
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