Elon Musk: Mars by 2026, AI to Outpace Human Productivity by 2028

In a discussion with XPRIZE Founder Peter Diamandis, Musk outlined his views on the growing influence of AI, as well as the timeline for SpaceX’s initial unmanned and crewed missions to Mars, among other topics.

The past few months have been quite eventful for the world’s wealthiest individual. SpaceX achieved a remarkable milestone by catching the massive Super Heavy booster of Starship using “Mechazilla” arms on the launch tower. This innovation allows the largest space launch vehicle in history to return from orbit and land precisely atop its booster, enabling quick turnaround for future launches. This development is set to transform the space industry, significantly reduce launch costs, and support Musk’s long-term vision of establishing a sustainable human colony on Mars.

A Tale of Two Innovations

In contrast, Tesla’s launch of the Cybercab/Robovan was more of a flashy presentation, but it outlined the company’s plans for fully autonomous robotaxis in detail. Meanwhile, Neuralink connected its second brain implant patient, Alex, who has been using the device to play video games and operate CAD software hands-free.

Additionally, X Ai launched the world’s most powerful AI training supercomputer cluster, Colossus, completing the setup of 100,000 nVidia H100 GPUs in an impressive 122 days. The company now possesses more GPUs than Google AI, OpenAI, Meta AI, Microsoft, or even nVidia, and Musk has stated that they will double their processing power soon with an additional 50,000 H200 GPUs.

If his team is on the right track, Musk has positioned himself well to advance X’s Grok AI language model beyond OpenAI’s GPT models, potentially making it a global leader in AI technology in the next year or two.

You might not have noticed, but in recent weeks, he has appeared more focused on politics than anything else, fervently supporting Donald Trump as the US presidential election approaches. He views Trump as a chance to influence government and has pledged to lead a Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) that could cut at least $2 trillion, nearly a third of the US federal budget, if Trump becomes president again.

Musk clearly likes to stay busy, but he took a moment to connect with Peter Diamandis via video for a discussion on the future of AI during a Future Investment Initiative Institute event at the King Abdulaziz International Conference Center in Riyadh yesterday. You can watch the full 22-minute video here, or check out some key quotes with timestamped links below.

(1:38) “It’s hard to quantify precisely, but I’m confident in saying it’s improving tenfold each year. In four years, that could mean it’s 10,000 times better, or even 100,000 times.”

(2:07) “I believe it will be capable of doing anything a human can do within the next year or two. As for matching the combined abilities of all humans, I don’t think it will take much longer—perhaps just three more years after that. So, around 2028 or 2029.”

(3:05) “The outlook is mostly positive, but there’s a 10 to 20% chance things could go wrong. While the risk isn’t negligible, overall, you could say the situation is about 80% to 90% optimistic. I believe AI poses a serious existential threat that we need to closely monitor; it’s likely the most significant immediate danger.”

(4:08) “In the long term, the key threat is global population decline. Birth rates are falling sharply, potentially leading to South Korea having a third of its current population and Europe about half.

“These projections assume birth rates return to the stability point of 2.1 children per woman. If the decline persists, many countries could shrink to 5% of their current size or less within three generations.”

(9:15) We will need a significant amount of energy for digital intelligence and electrifying transport. In the long run, nearly all our energy will come from the Sun.

“Assessing civilization via the Kardashev scale, I’m unsure we’re even at 1%, meaning we’ve harnessed all the planet’s power. Scale two involves capturing all energy from the Sun, which is the main source in the solar system. Thus, almost all future energy will be solar, approaching 100%.”

(15:25) “If we continue on a positive trajectory with AI, I envision a future of abundance where anyone can access any goods and services they desire. The marginal cost of these goods and services will be very low.”

(16:00) “Not too shabby for humans! I’m pleased to say that was accomplished entirely by human effort, without any AI involvement. In the future, AI might look back and think, ‘not bad for a group of monkeys!'”

(16:33) “I believe we can launch Starships to Mars in about two years. The next transit window is in 26 to 27 months, and if our first uncrewed missions go well, we aim to send humans two years later.

“I’m more optimistic under a Trump administration due to over-regulation being the main obstacle. Securing a launch permit often takes longer than building a rocket. Many countries, including the U.S., are struggling with excessive regulation, which could eventually make large projects illegal and hinder our Mars goals.”

He is highly polarizing and, unlike most billionaires, lives openly in the public eye. This makes it hard to separate his companies’ successes from his right-wing “Dark Gothic MAGA” politics, provocative X posts, immature humor, conspiracy theories, complicated family dynamics, disdain for unions and regulators, notorious temper, and high demands for commitment and long hours from employees. These factors have led to his ranking as the 57th most-hated celebrity on Ranker’s current list.

Read the original article on: New Atlas

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