Even NASA Is Stumped by the Alarming Surge in Global Temperatures

The world has been steadily warming for decades, but a sudden, extraordinary surge in global heat has pushed the climate into uncharted territory, leaving scientists grappling for answers.

Over the past two years, temperature records have been shattered repeatedly, defying even the most advanced climate models. While it’s clear that burning fossil fuels is the primary driver of long-term global warming, natural climate variability also plays a role in yearly temperature fluctuations. However, the cause of this exceptional heat surge remains under debate.

Experts suspect that changes in cloud patterns, air pollution, and Earth’s carbon storage capacity might contribute, but it may take another year or two to piece together the full picture. “Warming in 2023 was head-and-shoulders above any other year, and 2024 will be as well,” said Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, in November. “I wish I knew why, but I don’t,” he admitted, emphasizing that scientists are still analyzing whether the climate system is undergoing a fundamental shift.

A Planet in Uncharted Territory

Burning fossil fuels releases greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, which trap heat near the Earth’s surface. As emissions hit record highs in 2023, global temperatures followed a decades-long warming trend. Yet between June 2023 and September 2024, temperatures soared to unprecedented levels, with the World Meteorological Organization noting record-breaking heat far exceeding expectations. This surge made 2023—and soon after, 2024—the hottest years on record.

“The record global warmth of the past two years has pushed the planet deep into uncharted territory,” said Richard Allan, a climate scientist at the University of Reading. Sonia Seneviratne, a climatologist at ETH Zurich, added that while this extreme heat challenges existing climate models, the overall warming trend aligns with the massive burning of fossil fuels.

Explaining the Unusual Heat Surge

Scientists point to climate variability as part of the explanation. A rare, three-year La Niña event prior to 2023 temporarily cooled the planet by storing excess heat in deep oceans. However, when the opposite warming El Niño phenomenon took over in mid-2023, global temperatures surged. Surprisingly, even after El Niño peaked in January, temperatures remained high, with November still ranking as the second-warmest on record.

“It’s difficult to explain this prolonged heat,” said Robert Vautard, a member of the UN’s climate expert panel, IPCC. “We lack the perspective to fully understand it. If temperatures don’t drop sharply in 2025, we’ll need to ask serious questions about the underlying causes.”

Searching for Clues

Scientists are investigating several possibilities. One theory is that cleaner shipping fuels, introduced in 2020, reduced sulfur emissions that previously helped clouds reflect sunlight, thus accelerating warming. Another hypothesis is that a decline in low-lying clouds has allowed more heat to reach Earth’s surface.

At the recent American Geophysical Union conference, Schmidt led discussions exploring these theories and others, including potential roles of solar cycles and volcanic activity. Without a comprehensive understanding, some fear that scientists could overlook profound shifts in the climate system.

“We cannot exclude the possibility that additional factors amplified the warming,” Seneviratne cautioned.

Alarming Signs of Reduced Resilience

Researchers are also concerned about signs that Earth’s natural carbon sinks are weakening. In 2023, scientists reported an “unprecedented weakening” of forests and oceans, which usually absorb CO2. More troubling, the Arctic tundra—long a net carbon sink—has become a source of emissions, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Meanwhile, ocean temperatures are rising at rates scientists cannot yet fully explain. Johan Rockström of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research warned last month, “Could this be a first sign of the planet losing resilience? We cannot exclude it.”

As the search for answers continues, the recent heat surge raises urgent questions about humanity’s impact on the climate and whether Earth’s systems are nearing critical tipping points.

Read Original Article: Science Alert

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