Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions Rise Once More in 2024

Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels hit a record high in 2024, according to the latest research from the Global Carbon Project. Fossil CO2 emissions are projected to reach 37.4 billion tonnes, a 0.8% increase from 2023. Despite the urgent need to cut emissions to combat climate change, researchers say there is no sign yet of a peak in global fossil CO2 emissions.

Including emissions from land-use change, such as deforestation, total CO2 emissions are expected to rise to 41.6 billion tonnes in 2024, up from 40.6 billion tonnes in 2023. Over the past decade, fossil fuel emissions have steadily increased, while emissions from land-use change have decreased on average, leaving overall emissions relatively stable.

However, this year both fossil and land-use change emissions are on the rise, partly driven by drought and increased forest fires linked to the El Niño climate event.

Currently, more than 40 billion tonnes of CO2 are released into the atmosphere annually, pushing global temperatures higher and intensifying climate impacts.

The research team, which includes experts from institutions such as the University of Exeter, University of East Anglia, and CICERO Center for International Climate Research, underscores that “time is running out” to meet Paris Agreement targets. Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, who led the study, warned that without rapid, deep cuts in emissions, global temperatures will continue to rise, causing severe consequences.

Signs of Progress Amid Rising Emissions

Despite the overall increase in emissions, there are signs of progress. For example, renewable energy and electric vehicles are displacing fossil fuels, and deforestation emissions have decreased in recent decades. However, Dr. Glen Peters of CICERO cautioned that while some countries are reducing emissions, others are still increasing them, highlighting the need for faster, more global action to drive emissions downward toward net-zero.

Other key findings from the 2024 Global Carbon Budget include:

• Fossil Fuel Emissions: Coal emissions are projected to increase by 0.2%, oil by 0.9%, and gas by 2.4%, making up 41%, 32%, and 21% of global fossil CO2 emissions, respectively. Coal emissions could still decline, depending on uncertainties in the projections.
• Regional Emissions: China, which accounts for 32% of global emissions, is projected to see a slight increase of 0.2%. The US (13% of the total) is expected to decrease emissions by 0.6%, while India’s emissions (8% of the total) are projected to rise by 4.6%. The European Union’s emissions (7% of the total) are expected to decrease by 3.8%.
• Land-use Change: Emissions from deforestation are set to rise in 2024, reversing a decade-long decline, although reforestation efforts are offsetting about half of these emissions.
• Global CO2 Levels: Atmospheric CO2 is projected to reach 422.5 ppm in 2024, 2.8 ppm higher than in 2023, and 52% above pre-industrial levels.

In summary, while some positive steps are being made, the research underscores the urgent need for accelerated global action to reduce emissions and mitigate the worsening effects of climate change.

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