Global Temperature Approaches 1.5°C Threshold

The pace of climate change is increasing, and the global temperature is expected to surpass the 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) warming limit in the coming decade, as indicated by a study published recently.

This research, which includes contributions from scientists at NASA and Columbia University, highlights the growing urgency of the climate crisis and underscores the need for urgent action at this year’s COP28 climate conference. Despite the commitments made in the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit global warming to within 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, mounting evidence suggests that this target is becoming increasingly unattainable.

The majority of emissions scenarios outlined by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) anticipate that the world will exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold sometime in the 2030s.

Global warming nears 1.5°C – study: the warming impact of greenhouse gases

James Hansen, a co-author of the study and a prominent figure who first alerted the world to the warming impact of greenhouse gases in the 1980s, expressed a stark view, saying, “The 1.5C limit is deader than a doornail.” He emphasized that the scientific community has not effectively conveyed the gravity of the situation to political leaders.

The global temperature has risen by approximately 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels.

The study has generated diverse opinions among climate scientists. Some have questioned its findings, with Michael Mann from the University of Pennsylvania suggesting in a blog post that they significantly differ from the prevailing consensus.

This report arrives in the wake of several months marked by extreme weather events across the globe, including heatwaves in China and severe flooding in Libya. Furthermore, 2023 is on track to become the warmest year ever recorded.

Therefore, this month, nations will convene in Dubai for the annual United Nations climate summit to deliberate on worldwide initiatives for curbing greenhouse gas emissions.

Earth Sensitivity

The findings of this study, published in the Oxford Open Climate Change journal, are attributed to two primary factors.

First, scientists have underestimated the Earth’s climate sensitivity to increasing carbon dioxide levels. The IPCC originally predicted a 3°C (5.4°F) increase in global temperatures with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. Yet, improved insights from historical climate data, including ice cores and tree rings, have raised this estimate to about 4.8°C (8.6°F).

Second, the report highlights the impact of efforts to reduce air pollution in China, particularly from coal plants’ sulfur dioxide emissions, and global initiatives to control shipping emissions. Clearing the air has health benefits and saves lives, but it speeds up climate change because aerosols scatter and reflect solar energy.

While the study’s findings have received mixed feedback, they align with other recent research indicating an acceleration in climate change. Recent research published in the journal Nature Climate Change suggested that the world needs to achieve net-zero emissions by 2034 to have a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C, well ahead of the global goal of 2050.

Read the original article on Reuters.

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