Iceland’s Volcanic Eruptions Could Last for Decades

After nearly 800 years of inactivity, volcanoes on Iceland’s Reykjanes Peninsula are reawakening with increased intensity. Since 2021, eight eruptions have occurred, driven by a shallow magma reservoir approximately 10 kilometers wide and located just 9-12 kilometers beneath the surface, according to new research.

Geologist Valentin Troll from Uppsala University in Sweden, who led the study, emphasizes the urgency of alerting authorities to the magma source for the ongoing safety of residents in the region.

He suggests that the magma pool could sustain similarly-sized volcanic eruptions in Iceland’s Reykjanes Peninsula for years or possibly decades.

Mapping the Subsurface of Southwest Iceland’s Reykjanes Peninsula

Troll and his team utilized seismic wave data from volcanic eruptions and earthquake clusters to map the subsurface of southwest Iceland’s Reykjanes Peninsula, where most of the country’s population resides.

They determined that the 2021 eruptions of the Fagradalsfjall volcanic system were fueled by a reservoir of magma that flowed along geological pathways to Sundhnúkur, where lava has been erupting since late 2023.

The study’s findings indicate that both eruption zones share similar geochemical characteristics, implying a “connected magma plumbing system” between the two volcanic systems.

Historical data suggests that this shared magma pool likely formed between 2002 and 2020, received a recharge in 2023, and continues to supply magma from shallow depths to surface fissures and vents through gently sloped pathways. Deeper mantle rocks melting contribute to replenishing the magma pool, indicating potential ongoing eruptions for decades ahead.

In their published paper, Troll and colleagues emphasize the necessity of enhancing understanding of the magma supply system fueling the ongoing eruptive events. They anticipate increased eruption frequencies in the foreseeable future.

Now that the magma pool has been identified, efforts can focus on mapping and monitoring it to prepare communities for potential outcomes. This preparation may include repeated evacuations, crucial yet disruptive measures essential for ensuring people’s safety.

Risks to Critical Infrastructure from Frequent Eruptions

Frequent eruptions could also pose risks to critical infrastructure such as geothermal power plants, which provide Iceland with electricity and heat, as well as experimental carbon sequestration facilities that inject carbon dioxide (CO2) and other gaseous pollutants into porous rocks.

Iceland, located atop the Mid-Atlantic Ridge where the North American and Eurasian tectonic plates diverge, is no stranger to volcanic activity.

However, the past three years of eruptions have been notably disruptive and could signify the onset of an extended period of persistent volcanic activity for the country. Despite this, the researchers caution that nature is inherently unpredictable and advocate for ongoing monitoring of the area.

“We cannot predict the duration and frequency of future eruptions over the next decade or even century,” notes Ilya Bindeman, a volcanologist at the University of Oregon and study author. “Patterns may emerge, but nature always exhibits exceptions and irregularities.”

Read the original article on: Science Alert

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