“Shocking”: Record-Breaking January Heat Leaves Scientists Stunned

January set a new heat record, defying expectations that La Niña would bring cooling.

Copernicus Climate Change Service reported temperatures 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels, extending a historic warming trend. Scientists expected a cooldown after El Niño peaked in early 2024, but extreme heat persists, fueling debate over additional warming factors.

Every fraction of a degree worsens extreme weather. January exceeded the 2024 record by 0.09°C—a notable jump, said Copernicus scientist Julien Nicolas. “The cooling effect we expected isn’t happening,” he told AFP.

Stefan Rahmstorf of the University of Potsdam called it alarming: “For 60 years, every La Niña January has been cooler than surrounding years—until now.”

Weak La Niña and Unanswered Questions

This year’s La Niña is expected to be weak, with Copernicus suggesting its development may have stalled or even reversed. Nicolas predicted it could vanish by March.

Copernicus also confirmed that average global temperatures across 2023 and 2024 exceeded 1.5°C for the first time—testing the Paris Agreement’s limit, though not yet breaching it permanently. Scientists expect 2025 to be slightly cooler but still rank among the hottest years recorded.

The agency will closely monitor ocean temperatures, a key climate regulator. Oceans absorb 90% of excess heat from greenhouse gas emissions, and cooler waters help lower atmospheric temperatures. “This heat will inevitably resurface,” Nicolas explained, questioning whether that’s what’s happening now.

Sea surface temperatures in January were the second highest ever recorded, adding to the puzzle of why they remain so warm.

Climate Drivers and the Role of Pollution

Bill McGuire of University College London called January’s heat “astonishing and terrifying,” given La Niña’s presence. Joel Hirschi of the UK’s National Oceanography Centre cautioned against overinterpreting one month’s data but acknowledged the unusual pattern.

Scientists agree fossil fuel burning is the main driver of long-term warming, but short-term fluctuations also matter. Natural cycles like El Niño alone can’t explain the extreme heat, leading researchers to explore other factors.

One theory suggests that a 2020 shift to cleaner shipping fuels reduced sulfur emissions, making clouds less reflective and allowing more heat to reach Earth’s surface. A December study examined whether a decline in low-lying clouds contributed to warming.

“These questions must be taken seriously,” said Robert Vautard of the UN climate panel (IPCC).

Copernicus relies on billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft, and weather stations, with records dating back to 1940. Additional climate evidence from ice cores, tree rings, and coral skeletons suggests Earth is experiencing its warmest period in 125,000 years.

Read Original Article: Science Alert

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