UN Warns: High Odds We’ll Surpass 1.5°C Temperature Increase by 2029

The United Nations announced on Wednesday that there is a 70% likelihood that the average global temperature from 2025 to 2029 will exceed the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Following the two hottest years ever recorded in 2023 and 2024, the planet is expected to continue experiencing unprecedented warming levels, as detailed in the World Meteorological Organization’s annual climate report, the UN’s weather and climate authority.

“We have just witnessed the 10 warmest years on record,” stated Ko Barrett, deputy secretary-general of the WMO.

“Sadly, this report shows no signs of cooling down in the coming years, which will increasingly affect our economies, daily lives, ecosystems, and the entire planet.”

The Paris Agreement of 2015 set targets to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial times, with efforts to cap it at 1.5°C.

These targets are measured against temperatures from 1850-1900, before widespread industrial burning of fossil fuels that release carbon dioxide (CO2)—the main driver of climate change.

Many climate scientists now view the 1.5°C goal as increasingly unattainable, given that CO2 emissions continue to rise.

Five-Year Temperature Forecast

The WMO’s latest projections, based on data from the UK’s Met Office and multiple global centers, estimate that the average near-surface temperature from 2025 to 2029 will be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels.

There is a 70% chance that the average warming during this period will surpass 1.5°C.

Peter Thorne, director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units at the University of Maynooth, said that this aligns with expectations that we will exceed the 1.5°C threshold on a sustained basis by the late 2020s or early 2030s.

He added, “In two to three years, the probability of this will likely reach 100% for the five-year outlook.”

The WMO also estimates an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be hotter than the current warmest year on record, 2024.

Long-Term Warming Outlook

To account for natural climate variability, several methods evaluate long-term warming, explained Christopher Hewitt, director of WMO climate services, during a press briefing.

One approach, combining past decade’s data with projections for 2015-2034, estimates current warming at 1.44°C.

There is still no unified agreement on the best method to measure long-term warming.

The EU’s climate monitor Copernicus currently estimates warming at 1.39°C and projects that we could reach the 1.5°C mark by mid-2029 or earlier.

2°C Warming Now Possible

Although still very unlikely at about 1%, there is now a small chance that a year within the next five could exceed 2°C warming

“This is the first time our models have predicted such an event,” said Adam Scaife of the Met Office.

“It’s shocking, and the probability will continue to increase.”

He recalled that a decade ago, experts considered the likelihood of a single year surpassing 1.5°C very low—yet it happened in 2024.

Dangerous Level of Warming

Even slight temperature rises worsen heatwaves, heavy rainfall, droughts, and the melting of ice sheets and glaciers.

This year’s climate data shows no signs of relief.

Recently, China experienced temperatures above 40°C (104°F), the UAE nearly hit 52°C (126°F), and Pakistan faced deadly winds after an intense heatwave.

“We have already reached a perilous level of warming,” noted Friederike Otto, climatologist at Imperial College London, citing recent deadly floods and wildfires worldwide.

“Continuing to depend on oil, gas, and coal in 2025 is sheer madness.”

Davide Faranda of France’s CNRS emphasized, “The science is clear: to remain within a safe climate range, we must urgently reduce fossil fuel emissions and speed up the shift to renewable energy.”

Additional Alerts

The WMO forecasts Arctic warming will outpace the global average over the next five years.

Scientists expect sea ice to decline further in regions like the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk Seas.

Experts predict that South Asia will experience wetter-than-average conditions during this period.

The Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia will likely experience increased rainfall, while the Amazon is expected to dry out more than usual.

Read the original article on: Science Alert

Read more: Even NASA Is Stumped by the Alarming Surge in Global Temperatures