Weather Whiplash Driving LA’s Wildfire Could Lead to Record-Breaking Costs

By the next morning, flames had consumed 2,925 acres of the Pacific Palisades in what is being called Southern California’s worst wildfire since 2011.

Three additional fires have erupted in the region, including the Eaton Fire, which has already scorched over 2,000 acres.

As of Wednesday morning, firefighters had been unable to contain any of the blazes, according to the LA Fire Department.

The fires have destroyed more than 1,000 structures, claimed at least two lives, and show no signs of slowing down, with conditions likely to worsen.

While California frequently deals with wildfires, this particular scenario is especially severe due to several unique factors.

Few wildfires in California’s history have penetrated such densely populated urban neighborhoods.

UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain described the evolving Eaton Fire as an “urban firestorm” after analyzing live imagery on Tuesday morning.

The 1991 Tunnel Fire

A comparable historical event is the 1991 Tunnel Fire, which burned over 1,500 acres in Oakland. Though smaller than either of Los Angeles’ current major fires, it caused significant devastation, killing 25 people, injuring 150, and ranking as the third-deadliest and third-most-destructive fire in California’s history.

The full impact of this week’s fires remains uncertain.

Swain and his colleagues have speculated that the Palisades Fire could become the most expensive wildfire disaster in U.S. history. This is due to the sheer number of homes burning and the fact that many are among the world’s most valuable properties.

“We are likely witnessing what will become the costliest wildfire disaster in California—if not national—history, along with several other significant records,” Swain stated.

A powerful windstorm fanned the flames from Tuesday into Wednesday morning, with gusts reaching up to 90 miles per hour, according to the National Weather Service.

During a two-and-a-half-hour stretch overnight, the Palisades Fire more than doubled in size, as reported by the fire service.

On Tuesday evening, the winds were so intense that aircraft used for dropping water and fire retardant were grounded.

High Winds and Dry Landscapes

This situation reflects a phenomenon scientists have long warned about: the deadly combination of high winds and dry, open landscapes—like the brushland currently ablaze in Los Angeles—creating fires that outpace emergency response efforts.

“It’s certainly unusual how quickly it has grown,” Douglas Kelley, a wildfire expert at the UK’s Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, told Business Insider.

“It’s definitely spreading much faster than many people in the area expected,” said one observer.

A study published in Science last October revealed that while only about 3% of U.S. wildfires over nearly two decades qualified as “fast fires,” these blazes caused a disproportionately large amount of damage.

“The most destructive and deadly wildfires in U.S. history were also fast,” wrote the study’s authors, led by Jennifer Balch of the University of Colorado Boulder.

From 2001 to 2020, fast-moving fires were responsible for 78% of fire-destroyed buildings and 61% of suppression costs—amounting to $18.9 billion. The study also noted that these fast fires are becoming increasingly common.

While the windstorm contributed to the rapid spread of these fires, the primary accelerant—the dry vegetation acting as fuel—is closely tied to the ongoing climate crisis.

Southern California’s last two winters were unusually wet, with heavy rainfall and flooding—a major factor contributing to the current wildfire crisis.

How Rain and Drought Fueled the Flames

The abundant rain fueled rapid growth of grasses and brush, which serve as the primary fire fuel in the region. However, the past few months brought minimal precipitation, flash-drying the vegetation and creating ideal conditions for fast-moving fires.

Kelley noted that these dry conditions made the Palisades area particularly vulnerable to rapid fire spread.

This pattern is part of a broader trend that climate scientist Daniel Swain describes as “hydroclimate whiplash” or weather whiplash.

As global temperatures rise, regions like California are experiencing increasingly extreme shifts between periods of heavy rainfall and severe drought.

Swain pointed out that a similar combination of weather whiplash and high winds fueled the 2018 Camp Fire in Paradise, California. That blaze remains the state’s deadliest and most destructive wildfire, destroying 18,804 structures and claiming 85 lives.

Read the original article on: Science Alert

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