West Antarctic Ice Sheet Melting is Inevitably Increasing
New research suggests that, regardless of our efforts to reduce fossil fuel consumption, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet will persist in accelerating its melting rate throughout the century. This impending surge in ice melt is expected to lead to a rapid rise in Antarctica’s contribution to sea-level elevation over the next few decades.
Utilizing the UK’s national supercomputer, scientists conducted simulations to investigate the ocean-driven melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Their aim was to determine the extent of inevitable ice loss that necessitates adaptation and how much of this melting could still be controlled through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by the global community.
Climate Variability’s Impact on Ice Melting
Incorporating factors such as climate variability, such as El Niño, their findings revealed that there was no substantial distinction between scenarios based on mid-range emissions and the most ambitious goals outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement. Even in the most favorable scenario of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C, the rate of ice melting was projected to increase three times faster than in the 20th century.
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the largest contributor to rising sea levels in Antarctica, is steadily losing ice. Prior models suggest that this loss is primarily driven by the warming of the Southern Ocean, particularly in the Amundsen Sea region. Combined, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet contains enough ice to raise the global mean sea level by up to five meters.
Necessity for In-Depth Planning and Adaptation
Numerous coastal communities worldwide, home to millions of people, will bear the brunt of this sea-level rise. Gaining a more profound understanding of these impending changes will enable policymakers to plan and adapt more effectively.
Lead author Dr. Kaitlin Naughten, a researcher at the British Antarctic Survey, remarked, “It appears that we have relinquished control over the melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Preserving it in its historical state would have required action on climate change decades ago. On the bright side, by recognizing this situation in advance, the world will have more time to prepare for the impending sea-level rise. Having a 50-year lead time can make a substantial difference when it comes to relocating or significantly redesigning coastal regions.”
Exploring Varied Climate Scenarios
The research team simulated four distinct 21st-century scenarios, alongside a historical 20th-century scenario. The future scenarios either aimed to stabilize global temperature increases at the targets established in the Paris Agreement (1.5°C and 2°C) or adhered to conventional scenarios linked to medium and high carbon emissions.
In all the scenarios examined, there were noticeable and widespread increases in future temperatures in the Amundsen Sea, resulting in greater ice-shelf melting. The three lower-range scenarios demonstrated remarkably similar trajectories throughout the 21st century. Even in the most optimistic scenario, the warming of the Amundsen Sea accelerated by a factor of approximately three, subsequently leading to increased melting of the floating ice shelves that stabilize the inland glaciers. However, this melting did start to level off by the end of the century.
Delayed Significant Ice Shelf Melting
The worst-case scenario exhibited more significant ice shelf melting, but this occurred only after 2045. It’s important to note that this high fossil fuel scenario, characterized by rapid emissions growth, is considered unlikely.
While this study offers disconcerting projections regarding the melting of Amundsen Sea ice shelves, it does not diminish the significance of efforts to mitigate and reduce the impacts of climate change.
Dr. Naughten advises, “We must continue our endeavors to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels. Our actions today will contribute to slowing the pace of sea-level rise in the long run. The more gradual the sea-level changes, the better-quipped governments and society will be to adapt, even if complete prevention is unattainable.”
Read the original article on: Science Daily
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