Climate Change Intensifies Wildfires and Prolongs Fire Seasons
Wildfires, among the nation’s most devastating natural calamities, threaten lives, property, and the environment by causing air pollution and destroying homes and infrastructure. Effective wildfire forecasting and management hinge upon understanding the risk and strategically allocating resources. A recent study, detailed in the November release of Earth’s Future, brings scientific insights to this cause.
The collaborative research, involving scientists from DRI, Argonne National Laboratory, and the University of Wisconsin-Madison, delved into evaluating forthcoming fire risks. They analyzed four fire danger indices employed in North America, examining their association with observed wildfire sizes spanning from 1984 to 2019.
Climate change intensifies wildfires and prolongs fire seasons: The impact of climate change
They further investigated the impact of climate change on wildfire risk and duration, discovering potential increases in both fire likelihood and prolonged fire seasons due to climate shifts.
Dr. Guo Yu, the study’s lead author and an assistant research professor at DRI, highlighted, “We’ve utilized various fire danger indices to assess fire risk in the contiguous U.S. Past research mainly focused on how climate change might influence wildfire risk using just one of these indices. Only a few studies have explored how fire risk translates into the actual size or features of wildfires. We aimed to evaluate both aspects in our paper comprehensively.”
These fire danger indices rely on weather conditions and fuel moisture content, which gauges the dryness of ground vegetation. The commonly used indices in North America include the USGS Fire Potential Index, the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index, and the Energy Release Component and Burning Indices from the National Fire Danger Rating System.
Initially, the researchers employed satellite remote sensing data from 1984 to 2019, analyzing over 13,000 wildfires (excluding controlled burns) to ascertain the correlation between potential fire risk and the actual size of wildfires.
The fire danger indices
The study revealed a direct correlation between heightened wildfire risk and larger fire sizes, especially across wider regions.
When the fire danger indices were projected into future climate scenarios, the investigation concluded that extreme wildfire hazards would surge by an average of 10 days nationwide by the century’s end, mainly attributed to rising temperatures.
Particular regions, such as the southern Great Plains encompassing states like Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Texas, are anticipated to experience over 40 additional days annually of intense wildfire threats.
Conversely, minor areas might see a reduction in their yearly wildfire risk due to increased rainfall and higher humidity, notably along the Pacific Northwest and mid-Atlantic coasts.
The Southwest, including Texas and Louisiana coastal plains, foresees an augmentation of over 20 days per year in severe wildfire seasons, largely concentrated in spring and summer months.
Unexpectedly, the forecast also predicts extended fire seasons, even into the winter months, particularly in the Texas-Louisiana coastal region.
Dr. Guo Yu expressed his surprise, stating, “Under a warmer future climate, we can see that the fire danger will even be higher in the winter. This surprised me, because it feels counterintuitive, but climate change will alter the landscape in so many ways.”
The authors aspire that their findings will aid fire managers in comprehending potential wildfire sizes for adequate preparation and in comprehending the shifting fire seasonality due to climate change.
Read the original article on ScienceDaily
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