Hurricane Milton is Set to Hit Florida, with More Storms Predicted

Following an unusually calm August, the Atlantic hurricane season is intensifying. Hurricane Milton, now a Category 4 storm, is expected to make landfall in Florida on Wednesday night, while the state is still recovering from the damage caused by Hurricane Helene just under two weeks ago.

According to experts speaking to Business Insider, these consecutive storms are not the last we might encounter this year.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a few more storms develop before the season concludes,” said Kelly Núñez Ocasio, an assistant professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at Texas A&M University.

October Storm Surge Expected

Scientists were not surprised by the sudden increase in storms in October. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had forecasted a higher likelihood of an active season than usual in May and reaffirmed this prediction in August after a turbulent start to the season with Hurricanes Beryl, Debby, and Ernesto.

Following that, there was a lull in activity, with no named storms from August 13 to September 3—a period when hurricane activity typically peaks. Hurricanes Helene and Milton indicate that this was merely the calm before the storm.

Weather patterns, such as Africa’s monsoon season and La Niña, which usually fuel hurricanes during peak season, behaved unpredictably over the summer, likely contributing to the unusual quiet. However, these patterns have since changed, suggesting that more storms could develop in the upcoming weeks.

Unexpected Shift in Africa’s Monsoon Season

During the summer, Africa’s monsoon season, which typically supplies moisture and waves necessary for storm formation in the Atlantic, took an unusual shift by moving north into drier areas where storms are less likely to develop, as reported in September by Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science.

La Niña, the periodic cooling of ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific, usually decreases vertical wind shear in the tropics, facilitating the formation and growth of Atlantic storms. Although La Niña was expected to begin in August, it is only now starting to show signs of intensification.

“We’re gradually transitioning into La Niña,” said Matthew Rosencrans, the lead hurricane season forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, in an interview with Business Insider. He noted that the West African monsoon has also returned to its usual position, indicating that hurricane season is not over and that more storms may be on the way.

At the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season in June, NOAA forecasted up to 13 hurricanes by the end of the season. So far, there have been nine.

In recent weeks, conditions in the Gulf of Mexico have been favorable for storm development. Rosencrans anticipates that these conditions will shift southward toward the Caribbean in the coming days due to the intensifying La Niña.

This change could also slightly alter the areas where storms form, according to NOAA’s Global Tropics Hazards Outlook for the rest of October.

The Gulf of Mexico remains in a unique situation this year for storms, as all areas have abnormally warm surface temperatures that are high enough to support tropical storm development, according to Rosencrans.

Unexpected Shift in Africa’s Monsoon Season

These warm waters can also lead to rapid intensification of storms like Hurricane Milton. “Those warm waters serve as fuel for hurricanes; the warmer the water, the quicker these storms can intensify,” said Stephanie Zick, an associate professor in Virginia Tech’s Department of Geology, in an email to Business Insider.

Additionally, Núñez Ocasio predicts that more storms will form over the Atlantic in the coming weeks, as Africa’s monsoon remains active and has shifted to a position more conducive for storm development.

This year’s unusual hurricane season may indicate future trends.

In a study published in June, Núñez Ocasio and her colleagues modeled how rising moisture levels in the atmosphere—due to climate change—could impact Africa’s climate and Atlantic hurricanes in the years ahead.

Generally, increased moisture leads to more storms; however, the study identified a tipping point where excessive moisture can create an unusually wet and active African monsoon. This phenomenon diverts energy northward, away from the typical storm formation zone, similar to this year’s pattern.

“What the study shows is that there’s a delay,” in hurricane formation, Núñez Ocasio explained, noting, “we may begin to see a shift in the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.”

Rosencrans added that there is a broad timeframe for peak hurricane season, which varies each year. This year’s peak seems to be occurring a couple of weeks later than usual, but he has not yet observed a definitive trend indicating a concrete shift.

“What we need to do is prepare, because ultimately, our goal is to save lives and property,” Núñez Ocasio stated regarding her work and that of the hurricane research community.

Read the original article on: Science Alert

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