Research Shows that Global Food Production has Steadily Risen Over the Last Sixty Years

In contrast to common fears that global crop yields have stalled in recent years, an extensive study on global food production reveals that yields have continued to grow at a similar pace since the 1960s. John Baffes from the World Bank and Xiaoli Etienne from the University of Idaho, U.S., present these findings in the open-access journal PLOS ONE on November 27, 2024.

By 2050, nearly 10 billion people will inhabit Earth, increasing the need for agricultural production to feed the growing population.

Technological Advancements and Concerns About Plateauing Crop Yields

Over the past six decades, technological advancements, including the widespread adoption of improved crop varieties, have significantly driven the growth in food production.

However, some studies have raised concerns that production growth may have plateaued, particularly in low- and middle-income countries experiencing the highest population growth.

In their new study, the researchers developed standardized measures to assess global food production. “Using a comprehensive caloric-based index of production and yield for 144 crops, covering 98% of global agricultural land and food output, this paper shows that global yield growth—a key indicator of agricultural productivity—has remained consistent over the last 60 years,” the authors explain.

Tools for Comparative Analysis and Steady Global Productivity Gains

These measures could enable scientists and policymakers to compare agricultural productivity across countries and regions. The researchers also found that any slowdowns in specific crops, regions, or countries have been balanced by gains elsewhere.

“This steady growth translates to an annual increase of about 33 kilograms of wheat per hectare, demonstrating continued productivity improvements worldwide,” they note.

While the study’s findings offer reassurance regarding global food supply, the researchers caution that challenges related to sustainable food production and food affordability will persist. They stress that these issues are particularly pressing in the context of worsening climate change and rising demand for food driven by population and income growth.

Read the original article on: Phys Org

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