The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that there is an 80% chance an El Niño event will develop between this month and August.
The UN weather agency said that while uncertainty remains over the event’s peak strength and timing, most forecast models indicate it is likely to reach at least moderate intensity, with the potential to become strong.
Elevated Temperatures
The likelihood that El Niño will persist through at least November is nearly or above 90%.
In its latest update, the agency warns of a heightened risk of extreme weather in the months ahead, with above-average temperatures expected across much of the world from this month through August.
El Niño generally drives up global temperatures and contributes to more frequent and intense weather and rainfall extremes.
António Guterres said the scientific evidence is unequivocal, stressing that there is a 90% chance El Niño will develop in the coming months.
He urged the world to view the phenomenon as an urgent climate warning, noting that El Niño will amplify global warming and trigger more widespread, severe, and rapidly escalating impacts across borders.
Fossil Fuel Dependence
According to the Secretary-General, the only effective way forward is to implement climate action on a scale that matches the severity of the crisis. This includes reducing dependence on fossil fuels, speeding up the shift to renewable energy, safeguarding vulnerable communities, and providing universal access to early warning systems.
The statement warns that emerging El Niño conditions will influence global temperatures and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather events in the coming months.
Planning Ahead for a Significant Occasion
The WMO’s warning is straightforward: governments and communities must act now by using reliable information, making plans, and preparing for possible impacts.
According to WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, the world must be ready for a potentially intense El Niño event, which could worsen drought conditions, trigger heavier rainfall, and raise the likelihood of heatwaves affecting both land areas and oceans.
She noted that the previous El Niño event, which occurred in 2023–2024, ranked among the five strongest ever recorded and played a role in the unprecedented global temperatures reached in 2024.
Monitoring Indicator
From late April to mid-May, ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific—an area closely monitored as a key reference for El Niño—rose to levels nearing the thresholds associated with the event, based on data collected from multiple observation systems used by the WMO.
Unusually warm conditions beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific are driving the rise in sea surface temperatures, with water temperatures reaching more than 6°C above normal. This excess heat stored in the ocean is helping to sustain the warming trend detected at the surface.
At the same time, the Southern Oscillation Index, which reflects the atmospheric side of El Niño, is also displaying patterns that indicate the possible onset of the phenomenon.
Timely Alerts Help Protect Lives
According to the agency, reliable early forecasts enable authorities and communities to take preventive measures to protect people, livelihoods, and essential resources.
“The WMO community will continue to closely track developments in the coming months to assist governments, humanitarian organizations, and climate-dependent sectors in making informed decisions.
Timely seasonal predictions and early warning systems are essential tools for saving lives and minimizing damage to economies and communities,” said Celeste Saulo.
How it Occurs
El Niño is defined by an increase in sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon typically emerges every two to seven years and usually persists for around nine to twelve months.
It often starts forming between March and June, reaches its strongest phase from November to February, and its influence on global temperatures is generally most evident during the year after it begins.
The UN agency highlights that the impacts of El Niño events—as well as La Niña, its cooler counterpart—can vary depending on their strength, duration, timing, and interaction with other climate patterns. Effects are not experienced equally worldwide, and even areas within the same region may face different consequences. Additionally, extreme weather conditions can still occur during periods when neither El Niño nor La Niña is active.
Global Climate Transformation
Scientists categorize El Niño episodes as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong, making the event’s intensity a key factor. Even a moderate El Niño can raise the chances of specific climate-related extremes developing.
The agency does not use the term “super El Niño” because recognized operational classification systems do not include it.
Although there is currently no evidence that climate change makes El Niño events occur more frequently or become stronger, it may intensify their effects. A warmer atmosphere and ocean can supply additional heat and moisture, increasing the severity of extreme events such as heatwaves and intense rainfall.
Common Effects
Each El Niño event follows its own pattern in terms of development, geographical extent, and effects. Nevertheless, El Niño typically brings wetter-than-average conditions to regions such as southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia. In contrast, it often contributes to drier conditions across Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and some areas of South Asia.
The agency also noted that, during the Northern Hemisphere summer, the warmer ocean temperatures linked to El Niño may increase the likelihood of hurricanes developing in the central and eastern Pacific, while reducing hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean. As a result, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year.
El Niño updates are considered one of the most dependable sources of climate information for governments, humanitarian organizations, and climate-dependent sectors, including agriculture and public health. These assessments are produced using a combination of climate models from World Meteorological Organization Global Producing Centres, expert analysis from national meteorological and hydrological services, and forecasting centers around the world.
Read the original article on: UN News
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